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Renyi Divergence for Extreme Value Distributions
We propose a sensitivity testing framework suitable for insurance losses that follow heavy tailed distributions, including the family of generalised Pareto distributions. Starting from a baseline probability measure, e.g., a parametric model estimated from data, we solve the problem of finding the perturbed probability measure that exceeds a given risk tolerance and has smallest Rényi divergence to the baseline measure. We study the optimisation problem with risk tolerances given by the Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall, and expectiles, and prove that the perturbed probability measures exist and are uniqueness. We provide semi-analytical solutions and characterise the perturbed measures via the so-called lambda-exponential functions.

Our findings are illustrated on a Canadian insurance loss dataset stemming from natural catastrophes.
Date and Time
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Additional Authors and Speakers (not including you)
Mélina Mailhot
Concordia University
Emily Wright
Concordia University
Language of Oral Presentation
English
Language of Visual Aids
English

Speaker

Edit Name Primary Affiliation
Silvana Pesenti University of Toronto