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Modeling of Infectious Disease with Reinfection: Tuberculosis Transmission in Manitoba
The basic homogeneous SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed) model is commonly used for analyzing infectious diseases. The SEIR model lacks individual-level information like location and distance between susceptible and infected individuals. To address this limitation, a Geographically Dependent Individual-Level Model (GD-ILM) within an SEIR framework was previously developed. We expand the SEIR GD-ILM to accommodate infectious diseases involving loss of immunity, like Tuberculosis, resulting in SEIRS (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed-Susceptible) GD-ILM for when both regional and individual-level spatial data are available. To overcome computational complexity, we introduce a new approach based on the Monte Carlo Expectation Conditional Maximization algorithm for efficient parameter estimation. Focusing on Manitoba's health regions, we analyze individual-level Tuberculosis data (2011-2018) to predict infection rates over time and identify high-risk geographical areas.
Date and Time
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Co-auteurs (non y compris vous-même)
Mahmoud Torabi
University of Manitoba
Zeinab Mashreghi
University of Winnipeg
Langue de la présentation orale
Anglais
Langue des supports visuels
Anglais

Speaker

Edit Name Primary Affiliation
Amin Abed University of Manitoba