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Computationally Efficient Parameter Estimation for Spatial Individual-Level Models of Infectious Disease Transmission
Infectious disease transmission can be influenced by spatial location, susceptibility risk factors, and other individual-level factors. Individual-level models have been developed to account for this complexity, however model-fitting can quickly become prohibitively computationally intensive as model complexity increases. This talk proposes a new method to reduce the computational burden for parameterizing individual-level models. Individual-level epidemic data are spatially aggregated, parameters are estimated from the aggregated data set, and the original data are then used to disaggregate the aggregate-level estimates for epidemic statistics to the individual level. We compare the performance of this so called “cluster-aggregate-disaggregate”, or CAD, method to that of traditional MCMC and approximate Bayesian computation. The performance of these methods is illustrated with both a simulation study and a data set from a 2001 U.K. foot and mouth disease outbreak amongst livestock.
Date and Time
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Co-auteurs (non y compris vous-même)
Lorna Deeth
University of Guelph
Rob Deardon
University of Calgary
Langue de la présentation orale
Anglais
Langue des supports visuels
Anglais

Speaker

Edit Name Primary Affiliation
Madeline Ward University of Calgary