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Standard and comparative e-backtest based on elicitability
Backtesting risk measures is important for financial regulators to evaluate risk forecasts reported by financial institutions. As a natural extension to standard/traditional backtests, comparative backtests are introduced to compare different forecasting methods. Based on recently developed concepts of e-values and e-processes, we design a model-free method for standard backtests of identifiable risk measures. In addition, we develop model-free comparative backtests for elicitable risk measures by constructing e-processes. Our method can be applied to common risk measures including mean, variance, Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall, and expectiles. Simulation and real data analysis will be demonstrated as an illustration.
Date and Time
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Langue de la présentation orale
Anglais
Langue des supports visuels
Anglais

Speaker

Edit Name Primary Affiliation
Qiuqi Wang Georgia State University