Skip to main content
A main difficulty in actuarial claim size modeling is that there is no simple off-the-shelf distribution that simultaneously provides a good distributional model for the main body and the tail of the data. In particular, covariates may have different effects for small and for large claim sizes. To cope with this problem, we introduce a deep composite regression model whose splicing point is given in terms of a quantile of the conditional claim size distribution rather than a constant. To facilitate M-estimation for such models, we introduce and characterize the class of strictly consistent scoring functions for the triplet consisting a quantile, as well as the lower and upper expected shortfall beyond that quantile. In a second step, this elicitability result is applied to fit deep neural network regression models. We demonstrate the applicability of our approach and its superiority over classical approaches on a real accident insurance data set.
Additional Authors and Speakers (not including you)
Michael Merz
University of Hamburg
Mario V. Wüthrich
ETH Zurich
Date and Time
-
Language of Oral Presentation
English / Anglais
Language of Visual Aids
English / Anglais

Speaker

Edit Name Primary Affiliation
Tobias Fissler Vienna University of Economics and Business